Society is ageing
Caring for elderly parents is becoming increasingly common as our society ages
Silver tsunami, demographic timebomb, ageing explosion… These are just a few of the very dramatic, and rather alarming, metaphors used to convey the nature of the demographic changes society is facing. With this sort of press, it would be easy to believe that older people and longevity are something to be feared.
In fact, older people are the visible and much celebrated manifestation of our quest for longevity. Longevity is the happy and cherished result of decades of medical progress and lifestyle changes. Nowadays, millions more people are enjoying much longer lives. Between 1920 and 2019, average life expectancy for males in England increased from 55 years to 79.9 years.
Such dramatic changes in life expectancy are contributing to the rising numbers of older people living in the UK. Between 2016 and 2041, the UK population aged 65 years or more is expected to grow from 11.9 million to 17.7 million- an increase of 5.8 million. For the same period, the number of people aged 85 or more is expected to double.
Caring for elderly parents – ageing related illness
The rather ominous commentary on ageing is not rooted in negativity about older people, it is concerned with the daunting surge in the predicted numbers requiring treatment and support. As carents well know, older people need more care than their younger counterparts. Studies show that those aged over 75 need approximately three times as much care as those aged between 30 and 40.
A lot of the additional care for elderly parents relates to ageing related illnesses – long term conditions, frailty, disability and multimorbidity. As chronological age increases, so does the chance of developing these conditions.
There have been numerous attempts to quantify and predict the scale of additional “illness” which health and care services will need to plan for. One recent analysis examined likely changes in health amongst those aged 65 or more living in England. Those predictions indicate that between 2015 and 2035 we will see the following increases:
- Arthritis + 91.6%
- Cancer + 179.4%
- Coronary heart disease + 22.1%
- Dementia + 86.1%
- Diabetes + 118%
- High blood pressure + 69.5%
- Stroke + 84.2%
- Hearing impairments + 50.8%
- Visual impairment + 29.6%
Whilst exact figures might vary depending on the analytical methods used, conclusions about the general trends are consistent. Over the next 20 years, there will be a sharp rise in the number of people aged over 65 and that shift will be reflected by a largescale increase in the scale of ageing related illnesses needing treatment and care.
During the same period, the numbers of children and working age adults (everyone under 65) are not predicted to increase at the same rate. Between 2016 and 2041, the numbers in the UK aged 64 or less are expected to increase by only 1.4 million – from 53.8 million to 55.2 million. This means that the relative proportion of older people will increase.
In 2016, 18% of the UK population were aged 65 years or more. In 2066, it is projected that this percentage will rise to 26%.
Of course the current pandemic prompts greater awareness of future infections and questions about population projections. Nevertheless, current and immediate projections about changes in the age structure of the UK population have multiple implications for everyone. The intergenerational aspects are yet to be fully explored but one thing seems likely – many more relatives and friends will become carents i.e. adults caring for elderly parents.
